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Within the context of the Kingdom of Bahrain, this case study applies a realist lens to analyse a new policy approach to education reform. Called the ‘Tertiary Action Plan' (TAP), the design and consultation of this policy process provides an example of a different more Agile policy approach. Critics of traditional linier policy processes highlight that they do not consider the cultural, social and economic complexities of the policy context. This has become particularly important within the future skills agenda driven by the fourth industrial revolution and post-COVID recovery. Interviews with policy experts directly involved at a senior level in the TAP process highlight key themes that describe the ‘different' approach. These themes include whole system change and different rhetoric used to describe education ‘transformation' rather than reform;focusing on educational and labour market outcomes over delivering KPIs;and high-level integrated collaboration and responsibility. The conclusion and recommendations state that there is some evidence of Agile policy making, but this could be made more explicit by ensuring realist evaluation and monitoring principles are added to the implementation of the various TAP initiatives. © 2023, Gulf Research Centre Cambridge.
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BACKGROUND: In 2014, the Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS (UNAIDS) and partners launched the 90-90-90 targets. These were further updated to correspond to 95-95-95 by the year 2025. We present an overview of the progress made by Gulf Cooperated Council (GCC) countries towards meeting the global targets. METHODS: We extracted data from Global AIDS Monitoring (GAM), UNAIDS AIDS Info, HIV case reporting database, and the WHO global policy uptake for six countries: Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab of Emirates (UAE) to assess the HIV/AIDS burden in the six GCC countries, and the progress towards achieving the 95-95-95 goal. RESULTS: By the end of 2021, an estimated 42,015 people living with HIV (PLHIV) were residing in the GCC countries with prevalence levels below 0.01%. Data from four GCC countries, Bahrain, Oman, Qatar and UAE, indicated that by 2021, 94%, 80%, 66%, and 85% of HIV-positive population knew their status, respectively. 68%, 93% (2020 data), 65%, 58% and 85% of PLHIV in Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar and UAE who knew their status were on anti-retroviral therapy (ART), respectively, and 55%, 92%, 58% and 90% (2020 data) among those who were on ART had viral suppression in Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman and KSA, respectively. CONCLUSION: The GCC countries have made great strides toward fulfilling the 95-95-95 targets, but the interim 2025 overall UNAIDS targets remain unmet. The GCC countries must strive diligently to accomplish the targets by emphasising early identification of the cases by enhanced screening and testing, as well as prompt commencement of ART therapy with viral load suppression.
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PurposeThe current study aims to investigate the determinants of nonperforming loans (NPLs) in the GCC economies during the period spanning 2000 to 2018. It also examines whether the worldwide financial crisis of 2007–2008, which brought the issue of non–performing loans to the greater attention of academics and policymakers, had a substantial impact on NPLs in this region.Design/methodology/approachThe sample consists of 53 conventional banks from GCC countries, and the basic data for the study is obtained from various sources such as Bankscope, IMF World Economic Outlook, World Bank and Chicago Board of Options Exchange Market Volatility Index. The estimations were done by dynamic panel data regression modeling using system generalized methods of moments.FindingsThe findings reveal that both, the non-oil real GDP growth rate and inflation have favorable effects on NPLs. On the other hand, domestic credit to the private sector and the volatility index have an adverse effect on NPLs. Furthermore, the period-wise analysis shows that the relevance and significance of the determinants of NPLs vary between the precrisis and postcrisis periods. It is also reflected through the intercept dummy, which is found to be significant, indicating that the financial crisis, as a global economic factor, had a significant impact on NPLs. A number of robustness tests are applied, which indicate that the results are mostly robust and consistent in terms of the significance of the explanatory variables and the direction of their relationship with the dependent variable.Practical implicationsPolicymakers and bank authorities must strive to maintain a healthy economy and implement macroprudential policies to improve the financial stability of banks and reduce credit risk.Originality/valueTo the best of the authors' knowledge, this is likely the first study that empirically investigates the influence of the financial crisis on NPLs in the context of GCC economies. In addition, the research spans 19 years to produce more conclusive results.
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Using a bivariate dynamic conditional correlation (DCC) generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH) model, this study compares the safe-haven properties of various assets against the major Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) stock indexes during two periods of financial turmoil, the COVID-19 pandemic and the 2008 Global Financial Crisis (GFC). Sovereign bonds offered the highest hedging benefits under both crises. The traditional safe assets, gold and silver, which were reasonably productive under the GFC, have been less so during the pandemic. The Japanese yen emerged as a very safe choice for investors holding GCC stock indexes. Both sector indexes and stock indexes failed to safeguard investors most of the time during each crisis.
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PurposeThe purpose of the study is to adopt Morlet's wavelet method to examine the differences in the level of volatility (i.e. riskiness) between the conventional and Shari'ah indexes during the COVID-19 pandemic (February 4 to June 19, 2020) on selected Association of South East Asian Nation (ASEAN) and Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries. As a comparison, the equivalent time period of relative tranquillity is used;February 4 to June 19, 2019.Design/methodology/approachMorlet's wavelet method is used in analyzing the volatility levels for both the conventional and Shari'ah indexes before and during the COVID-19 pandemic for the selected ASEAN and GCC countries.FindingsThis study has several findings;first, the markets in the ASEAN region appear to be more volatile during the pandemic than in the GCC region. Second, most of the Shari'ah indexes were more volatile during the COVID-19 pandemic than their conventional counterparts. Nevertheless, the GCC index pairs appear to show more similarities between both the Shari'ah and conventional index.Practical implicationsThe findings from this study indicate that investors, government, regulators and all other stakeholders should stay vigilant during a pandemic or health threat period as it has become a pertinent source of volatility spillovers. As such, investors should devise optimal asset allocation strategies, portfolio diversification and portfolio rebalancing measures, taking into consideration not only financial adversity but also public health gravity as a potential source of turbulent markets.Originality/valueThis study uses the wavelet method to examine the volatility level of both the Shari'ah and conventional indexes during the COVID-19 pandemic and its equivalent time frame in 2019. It has further added to the Islamic literature by comparing the volatility between selected ASEAN and GCC countries. The wavelet method is most appropriate for short-duration studies as it captures both the time and frequency domains of the time-series behavior.
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PurposeThis study aims to examine the commonalities and contrasts in the tourism objectives and strategies of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries, thereby revealing the foundations and pillars underlying the strategic initiatives implemented.Design/methodology/approachThis exploratory study applied the resource-based view (RBV) lens to the country level. A comparative analysis of the tourism strategy in each GCC country was undertaken to determine commonalities and contrasts between the different strategies and to classify them into clusters. In the next stage, in-depth interviews were carried out to validate the findings.FindingsFour distinct clusters were identified in this paper: lifestyle glamor, emerging giant, sports-induced country branding and eco-friendly regional-based strategies.Practical implicationsThe findings and cluster classification are pertinent to policymakers and industry marketers in crafting tourism development plans.Originality/valueThis study analyzed the economic diversification strategies adopted by GCC countries as new entrants in the tourism sector and classified them into four clusters.
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The importance of crude oil volatility and geopolitical risk for stock pricing is well known in both developed and emerging economies, but is relatively understudied in major oil-exporting countries at the sectoral level of stock indices and under various market conditions. Using daily data on eight Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) stock sector indices over the period February 2010–30 June 2022, we capture the effect of two global risk factors, namely oil implied volatility and geopolitical risk, on stock returns and volatility while accounting for bull/bear markets and low/high volatility regimes. The analysis indicates the following results. Firstly, the effect of oil implied volatility is stronger than that of geopolitical risk, notably for Consumer Discretionary and Staples. Secondly, the effect on both returns and volatility is generally positive during bull markets, but it is stronger for volatility;the response of the returns of Energy, Materials, Industrials, and Financials is negative in bear markets and positive during bull markets. Thirdly, the effect of oil implied volatility on stock sector volatility is slightly higher during the COVID-19 outbreak for some cases and is prominent during bull markets. Our findings matter for the predictability of GCC stock sector returns and volatility and for the design of hedging strategies under various market states. © 2023 Elsevier B.V.
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PurposeTourism in the Middle East is distinct and diverse, as are its associated challenges. The purpose of this paper is to examine the various opportunities and constraints facing the Middle East region in developing and promoting its tourism.Design/methodology/approachContent analysis of the current literature was conducted, and industry white papers and government portals were consulted to identify the historical relevance, current proceedings and future scope of tourism in the Middle East.FindingsGiven the diverse attractions, history, heritage and cuisine, the scope and potential to develop tourism in the Middle East region is enormous. However, political turmoil in the past and its stereotypical image emerged as the major constraints. Acknowledging the significance of the tourism sector, the governments of the region are trying hard to improve international arrivals and revenues.Originality/valueDespite a steep growth in international arrivals, tourism in the Middle East has not been adequately addressed in academia. This paper highlights the region's tourism-related background, issues and constraints, thus, addressing a critical gap in the literature.
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PurposeThis paper aims to review the contribution made by the theme issue to the body of knowledge on tourism growth drivers and challenges in the Middle East and the subsequent impact of tourism growth drivers in the region in developing and promoting tourism.Design/methodology/approachA content analysis of the contributing articles featured in this theme issue was undertaken. Additionally, industry white papers and government portals were consulted to identify the historical relevance, current proceedings and future scope of tourism in the Middle East.FindingsThis summary article highlights the key outcomes relating to the tourism growth drivers and challenges in the Middle East that will assist in policy and decision-making by the pertinent stakeholders, especially in the United Arab Emirates (UAE).Originality/valueDespite steep growth in international arrivals, tourism development in the Middle East has not been adequately addressed in academia. This theme issue highlights the region's tourism-related background, problems and constraints, thereby addressing a critical gap in the literature.
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Our investigation of 46 conventional and 22 Islamic banks from the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries during 2008–2021 reveals that sectoral diversification effects on stability are nonlinear and different for the two bank types. While Islamic banks' stability is worsened only by moderate levels of diversification, conventional banks' stability is enhanced by high levels and impaired by low levels of diversification. Furthermore, diversification acted as a stabilizer during the global financial crisis but exacerbated the adverse effects of the Covid-19 pandemic. Although regulators usually call for bank diversification, our results imply that it can be a double-edged sword. © 2022
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There is no doubt that oil price shocks significantly affect oil-producing countries' macroeconomic fundamentals and financial stability, mainly in crisis times. The recent oil price shocks, coupled with the COVID-19 pandemic, motivated us to investigate the connectedness and risk transmission among oil shocks and banking sectors in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) economies from June 30, 2006, to September 9, 2021. Thus, we construct multilayer information spillover networks between oil price shocks and GCC banking sectors. The empirical results show that the Bahrain banking sector depicts the highest connectedness and risk transmission with oil price shocks on the extreme risk spillover layer. In addition, Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates are highly connected to oil demand shocks. Furthermore, we find a substantial increase in extreme risk spillover and volatility spillover layers during the COVID-19 period. The results of this paper have some important implications for regional portfolio risk management, alleviating systemic risk, and developing hedging and investment strategies.
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Purpose: The study aims to develop an innovative work behavior (IWB) scale for the faculty members and faculty leaders of universities in the Gulf Cooperation Council Countries (GCC). This research is intended for assessing the level of IWB in higher education and evaluating its psychometric properties. Design/methodology/approach: The study targets academic staff of universities in the GCC region, and out of 810 questionnaires that were distributed, only 773 valid responses were obtained of which 517 were responses from males and 256 from females whose ages range between 33 and 67 years. Findings: The exploratory and confirmatory factor analyses were used and confirmed a five-factor structural model (opportunity exploration, idea generation, idea promotion, idea realization and idea sustainability), and the model has a satisfactory fit. The scale consists of 27 items with high Cronbach's alpha value of 0.87, demonstrating good internal consistency. Preliminary results suggest that the IWB scale has adequate convergent and divergent validity. Practical implications: The IWB scale can be a useful tool for evaluating and developing a high level of innovative work behavior that maintains university services' sustainability and increases industries' competitiveness. Originality/value: This research provides insights into the importance of IWB in achieving tangible success to the educational institutions. It provides a new method to confront sudden and unexpected circumstance such as what has happened during COVID-19 pandemic. © 2021, Emerald Publishing Limited.
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Purpose: Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is a new disease that has led to rapid and dramatic global changes. This study aims to investigate how Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) citizens and noncitizens search for necessary information and assess available information sources, their associated awareness and anxiety levels, voluntary work, compliance with quarantine regulations and technology. Design/methodology/approach: An electronic questionnaire was designed using Google Forms and distributed on Twitter and WhatsApp. In total, 1,006 responses were received. Findings: The results showed that 75.25% of the participants were active information seekers because of their daily search for necessary information. "Formal sources,” "Social media” and "Television” were the most preferred information sources found by the study sample. Originality/value: This study investigates the behavior of GCC citizens and noncitizens in searching for necessary information during the COVID-19 pandemic. In addition, it draws attention to the importance of digitization and digital preservation in building a specialized digital library for future access to pandemic-related information distributed by the government authorities and institutions in the State of Kuwait. © 2023, Emerald Publishing Limited.
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Purpose: Academic institutions, for the most part, discontinued face-to-face classes in favor of adopting and deploying online learning modalities that allowed for immediate participation. The pandemic has hastened the pace of implementation as well as the utilization of and reliance on technology. Artificial intelligence (AI) is important for higher education business continuity. Currently, some institutions are utilizing these resources to strengthen their student recruitment and retention efforts. Others use them to make the classroom more accessible or to construct tailored learning programs. Design/methodology/approach: The rapid spread of the deadly COVID-19 pandemic in early 2020 has compelled many countries to enact stringent measures to halt the virus's spread. The pandemic has hastened the adoption of online teaching and remote work technology. While a combination of online and face-to-face learning is the way of the future, it will necessitate additional resources to support program development and delivery, as well as increased collaboration between IT and subject matter experts. Findings: This successful technological integration, which includes a smooth transition from face-to-face training to digital e-courses, provides a variety of benefits, including money saved on travel expenses. Top technological developments will continue to enhance company innovation and efficiency while also improving service efficiency. The top strategic technology trends for this year fall into three categories: human centricity, location independence, and resilient delivery, and are expected to be significant for the next five to ten years. Higher Education Institutions (HEIs) will need to establish a technological ecosystem that is dependable, cloud-based, data-integrated, and learning-focused to compete successfully in this "new normal.” After the epidemic, when classes resume on campus, a hybrid approach to virtual learning is likely to become the new normal. While it is unlikely that campuses would be totally virtual, they will also be unlikely to be entirely physical. Originality/value: A blend of actual and virtual classrooms, as well as online learning, is the long-term solution, and strategic decisions made now will be critical in preparing for a post-pandemic world. © 2023, Emerald Publishing Limited.
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COVID-19 has been impacting stock markets worldwide. Yet, a scant amount of research has been done on the stock markets of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) markets. In this work, we aim to investigate whether and to what extent local and international events linked to the COVID-19 outbreak have impacted stock market volatility of the GCC countries. We model stocks' returns of these countries between January and December 2020, decomposing the errors' heteroskedasticity to account for main international and local events related to COVID-19. These events have been included as structural breaks and measured using dichotomous variables. Both local and international events were found to be associated with significant variations in volatility;however, local events seem to have impacted volatility to a lesser extent compared to international events. The announcement of the status of pandemic by the WHO had the greatest impact on volatility across the GCC markets, even greater than the impact associated to the drop in oil prices. The announcement of local approval of vaccine led to a reduction in volatility in UAE (ADX), Qatar, Saudi Arabia and Bahrain © International Journal of Economics and Management
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This study aims to contribute to the empirical literature on sustainable entrepreneurial ecosystems by understanding the opportunities and constraints to support its development using the case of Qatar. This study was designed using a triangulation method to combine different data collection techniques to increase the validity and reliability of the results. The data collection incorporated multiple data sources, starting with secondary sources and then collecting primary data through 37 interviews with key informants, mainly start-up founders and key stakeholders, a technique previously used in studies of critical players in entrepreneurial ecosystems. The findings were four-fold: (1) entrepreneurial ecosystem conditions are essential as facilitators of entrepreneurship, innovation, and sustainability, but government intervention can inhibit the outputs if the policies are not designed as customer-centric, (2) business sophistication is fundamental to increase innovation and attractiveness for investors but requires a stronger academic, industry, and government collaboration, (3) knowledge and technology outputs are limited when the domestic market is small, and the knowledge transfer policies are complex, and (4) the sustainability of an entrepreneurial ecosystem is fostered by the exposure to a crisis, robust national culture, and joint vision to reach sustainable development. This study provides evidence that shows a positive relationship between innovation and sustainable economic development, which makes this research even more relevant to our aim of supporting the Qatar National Vision 2030;at the same time, it contributes to the GCC literature and guides policymakers in the region.
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PurposeThis study aims to examine the existence of herding and the impact of economic and political factors in the Shariah-compliant stocks of Gulf Cooperation Council markets, namely, Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and United Arab Emirates. This study also seeks to explore the existence of herding under market stress and cross-stocks herding between Shariah-compliant and conventional stocks. Design/methodology/approachThe data period is from 1 January 2016 to 31 December 2021. Panel data regression and panel quantile regression are used to examine herding. FindingsThe results show that herding tends to exist in Shariah stocks before the pandemic but is more pronounced in both types of stocks during the pandemic. The empirical evidence shows that economic factors are significant to herding before and during pandemic, whereas the political factors are only shown to be significant before COVID-19. Conventional stocks are correlated to the herding of Shariah stocks but the Shariah stocks have no significant impact on the herding of conventional stocks. Panel quantile regression shows that herding exists in extreme conditions but not all markets perform similarly. Originality/valueThe results of this study imply that the political factor can lead investors to herd. This political factor represents information that is used by investors to herd, consistent with the prediction of information-based theory of herding. Hence, policymakers and regulators need to be wary of any change in the political factors as they may cause movement in stock prices that deviate from fundamental value because of investor herding.
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The study investigates the return spillovers across 20 Islamic and 34 conventional banks among GCC markets (UAE, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Qatar, Kuwait) over the period 2005–2022 based on Dieobold and Yilmaz (2014) and Barunik and Krehlik (2018) methods. The outcomes interestingly reveal that the spillover between markets is time-varying, asymmetric, and crisis-sensitive. Moreover, short-oriented spillovers dictate the long-oriented spillovers, while long-oriented spillovers establish the major chunk of the total return spillovers. The results of the DY and BK approach show a weak connectedness between all Islamic banks rather than conventional banks of GCC. Subsample analysis of COVID-19 and GFC strengthens the total and short-oriented spillovers more than long-term spillovers. The global financial stress is exposed with the most substantial coherence, increasing the connectedness of Islamic banks in the short and long-oriented markets compared to conventional banks. The results of the study have practical implications for bankers, central banks, Islamic banks, policymakers, international economic institutions, banking investors, FIIs, DIIs, and academia. Additionally, the current findings can be guiding forces for many investors across the world to take their portfolio decision by leveraging Islamic banks’ securities. © 2022 Informa UK Limited, trading as Taylor & Francis Group.
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This paper investigates the financial performance of the largest Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) banks by total assets before and during the recent COVID-19 pandemic. The purpose of the study was to identify the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on banks' financial performance. Financial ratios analysis during the period 2017-2020 is employed to measure the financial performance of the largest GCC banks mainly based in Saudi Arabia, Qatar, United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Oman, and Bahrain. The ratios cover key performance areas such as profitability, efficiency, liquidity, asset quality, asset risk, and expense management. Two significant developments in 2020 are the COVID-19 pandemic and severe drop in oil prices, both of which led to a sharp drop in the region's GDP growth rate from an average of -0.09% in year 2019 to -5.9% in 2020, which in turn is expected to negatively impact bank performance. Using paired samples t-test the research study found statistically significant results that the financial performance of all banks suffered on almost all the key parameters in 2020 compared to the earlier period which can explained by the decline in economic activity due to COVID-19. The focus of this study and its conclusions are novel to the extent that there are no country specific studies related to impact of COVID 19 on the biggest banks in a country. Further as far as the authors know there are no studies on the topic of impact of COVID-19 on big banks operating in the Gulf cooperation council countries. The conclusions of the study would of importance to the regulators who would not like the big banks to fail. © Al Kharusi S., Murthy S.R., 2022.
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Purpose The purpose of the study is to adopt Morlet's wavelet method to examine the differences in the level of volatility (i.e. riskiness) between the conventional and Shari'ah indexes during the COVID-19 pandemic (February 4 to June 19, 2020) on selected Association of South East Asian Nation (ASEAN) and Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries. As a comparison, the equivalent time period of relative tranquillity is used;February 4 to June 19, 2019. Design/methodology/approach Morlet's wavelet method is used in analyzing the volatility levels for both the conventional and Shari'ah indexes before and during the COVID-19 pandemic for the selected ASEAN and GCC countries. Findings This study has several findings;first, the markets in the ASEAN region appear to be more volatile during the pandemic than in the GCC region. Second, most of the Shari'ah indexes were more volatile during the COVID-19 pandemic than their conventional counterparts. Nevertheless, the GCC index pairs appear to show more similarities between both the Shari'ah and conventional index. Practical implications The findings from this study indicate that investors, government, regulators and all other stakeholders should stay vigilant during a pandemic or health threat period as it has become a pertinent source of volatility spillovers. As such, investors should devise optimal asset allocation strategies, portfolio diversification and portfolio rebalancing measures, taking into consideration not only financial adversity but also public health gravity as a potential source of turbulent markets. Originality/value This study uses the wavelet method to examine the volatility level of both the Shari'ah and conventional indexes during the COVID-19 pandemic and its equivalent time frame in 2019. It has further added to the Islamic literature by comparing the volatility between selected ASEAN and GCC countries. The wavelet method is most appropriate for short-duration studies as it captures both the time and frequency domains of the time-series behavior.